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Columnist Michael Pascoe

A rate rise - with an implied warning of more

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Michael Pascoe
Michael Pascoe
As expected, the Reserve Bank increased the interest rate to 6.5 per cent this morning. But is this something we should have sleepless nights over? Are there more hikes to come? Michael Pascoe shares his view.

There's no real news in the Reserve Bank increasing interest rates by a quarter per cent to 6.5 per cent this morning - it would only have been news if the RBA had left rates where they were or gone a step further.

The headline should be the subtle way the RBA governor warned that there could be further increases down the track. Governor Glenn Stevens' full statement is on the RBA web site.

The important bit was in the last two paragraphs: "For some months, the Board has recognised that stronger economic conditions were likely to put upward pressure on inflation, notwithstanding some dampening influence from the higher exchange rate. As a result, the Board has been of the view that further monetary policy tightening could be required. The main factors that had allowed time for further consideration were that, prior to this month, the two most recent inflation results had been unexpectedly subdued, and wages growth had remained moderate.

However, the high CPI outcome for the June quarter indicated a less favourable near-term outlook, with the implication that any further increases in inflation would take place from a higher starting point than previously envisaged.

"Based on these considerations, the Board judged that a somewhat more restrictive monetary policy setting was required in order to keep inflation consistent with the target in the medium term."

So, it turns out that the RBA's trigger finger has been itchy all year, the Martin Place boffins only prevented from firing off a rate rise earlier by the surprisingly low CPI numbers for the December and March quarters.

Now the shooting range has returned to something more normal, or at least what they expected. Thus, if we get another high inflation number for the September quarter (published at the end of October), the RBA board will mark their Melbourne Cup lunch with another rate rise.

If that makes borrowers nervous, it's meant to.

The RBA reckons we're growing about as fast as we possibly can and therefore it has a duty to hit inflation on the head if it sticks it up too high.

But there is some good news today as well. If you trust the RBA more than headline writers (and you should), you can take comfort in the central bank believing the present credit market shenanigans will all work out OK.

The end of the world isn't quite as nigh as some would have you believe. Says Governor Glenn Stevens: "Credit markets in the US have experienced some turbulence in recent weeks, which may pose downside risks to the US economy. While this will need to be kept under review, developments to date do not appear to have changed significantly the broader global outlook. Even with the US slowing down, forecasts of global growth have recently been revised upward."

How wise of the good governor to agree with me! And so, it seems does the US Federal Reserve Board. Overnight the Fed voted to keep US interest rates steady, telling the US markets that it's keeping an eye on the credit markets but it's not particularly worried.

So, yes, another interest rate rise hurts. The reality is that we live in times of increasing rates - and thus it is not a good idea to be stretched too tightly.

Factor in the chance of another rate rise or two in your personal finances, but take some comfort in the domestic and world economies remaining strong. That's much more important.

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